FXUS63 KOAX 220821
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011
.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES IN WAKE OF THE DEEP/STACKED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
IA/MN/SD/NEB BORDER AREA. WEAK 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOW
INDICATE THAT IT IS FILLING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. 850MB
TEMPS DIP TO 9C IN EASTERN SD/ND BEHIND THE LOW...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS
STILL EXTENDING WELL BEHIND THE LOW INTO ND/MT/SD/NEB. PROFILER
NETWORK INDICATES 850MB WINDS UP TO 50KT IN NORTHEAST NEB BEHIND THE
LOW.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY...THEN
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA IN PARTICULAR TODAY...WITH
MORE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED NATURE OF
SHOWERS...AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN MIXING IS STRONGEST...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE CWA SHOULD BE SLACKENING A BIT BY THEN. HAVE KEPT WINDS JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTH...BUT HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA. KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE AS READINGS
STRUGGLED TO RISE OUT OF THE 60S IN THE NORTH YESTERDAY AND
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE JUST AS COOL TODAY. INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY PULLS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. SURFACE HIGH/MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO COME TOGETHER ON THE HIGH PLAINS. 850MB WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS HAVE KEPT DRY
FORECAST...THOUGH SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP BOTH IN KS AND IN FAR
WESTERN NEB. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT INTO EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA
THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE CWA. ALSO KEPT CWA DRY ON FRIDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING REMAINS
WELL WEST OF THE CWA...BUT LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON 850MB WARM
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST SHOULD KEEP
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AS TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL EVENTS IS NOT CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW FROM SW INTO SCNTRL MN WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WI TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OVER LAKE MI BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR
OUT LOW CLOUDS AND BRING DECREASING WINDS...GENERALLY EITHER TONIGHT
OR THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL PIVOT
ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING THEN
IMPROVING A BIT BY AFTERNOON. KLNK WILL REMAIN ON SW EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN TEMPORARILY LOSE THEM THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY EARLY
TODAY...BUT THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES. SURFACE
WINDS AT KLNK AND KOMA HAVE VEERED TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION AND
DECREASED...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT MORE
NWRLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF FOR GOOD FROM THIS SYSTEM
TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MAYES/CHERMOK