FXUS63 KOAX 212014
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR KSUX WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUITE LIGHT COMPARATIVELY...AND THUS WILL NOT CAUSE ANY
ADDITIONAL LOCAL RISES ON THE MISSOURI RIVER. TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD MODERATE TO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A NEARLY DAILY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. A VERY WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE FRONT THAT REMAINS
GENERALLY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S...BUT SOMEWHAT HARD TO TIME VARIOUS IMPULSES THAT CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN OVERALL FLOW.
DEWALD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE PRELIMINARILY SET NEW STAGE RECORDS ON THE MISSOURI RIVER
AT BOTH PLATTSMOUTH AND NEBRASKA CITY TODAY...SURPASSING THE FLOOD
OF 1993. RECALL...A NEW STAGE RECORD WAS SET AT BROWNVILLE THIS
PAST WEEKEND...SURPASSING THE 1993 FLOOD. A NEW STAGE RECORD IS
FORECAST FOR RULO THIS WEEK WHICH WOULD SURPASS THE FLOOD OF 2010.
OMAHA AND BLAIR AND PRELIMINARILY AT THEIR SECOND HIGHEST STAGES
BEHIND THE 1952 FLOOD. NO CHANGES TO RELEASES TO UPSTREAM
RESERVOIRS ARE EXPECTED IN SHORT TERM WITH GAVINS POINT CONTINUING
A 150 KCFS RELEASE.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONS/RADAR TRENDS...WILL SEE PERIODIC CONVECTION
IMPACTING ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL CARRY THROUGH AROUND 06Z AT KOFK WITH
PRECIP GENERALLY COMING TO AN END FOR KOMA AND KLNK AFTER AROUND
02Z. NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CIGS MAY APPROACH IFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FOLTZ
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$