FXUS63 KOAX 250820
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX ONGOING CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS MORNING WITH A
COUPLE AREAS OF FOCUS. THE INITIAL MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DID PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT HAD WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY ALONG INTERSTATE
80 AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FINALLY MAXIMIZED...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH A COUPLE
LARGER HAIL REPORTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ENTIRE
CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG
I80...AND MAY BLOCK MOISTURE TRANSPORT FURTHER NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THERE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET PROGS...SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCES MAY EXIST ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION AS THE AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENCE SETS UP JUST NORTH. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE BACK
EDGE OF THAT MCS COULD STILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA...MEANWHILE...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION COULD BE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS TODAY.
FEEL THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE DEVELOPING STRATUS AND AREAS FOG BY
DAYBREAK. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SETS UP WITH A VERY LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL MODEL SUITES ARE
SUGGESTING THIS...THUS UPPED THE CLOUD FORECAST AND ADDED FOG TO
THE GRIDS. DID NOT MENTION DENSE FOG JUST YET GIVEN WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AS WITH A TYPICAL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. LINGERED STRATUS AND FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVANCING WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COOL FRONT
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP
AND AFFECT AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TOO.
BY MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...BUT TRIED TO FORECAST A COMPROMISE...WHICH WOULD STILL
SUGGEST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS COMING IN BEHIND AND CLEARING SKIES.
BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
POTENT LITTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS
MORNING KICKING OFF SCATTERED TSRA MOVING THRU ERN NEB AROUND 25KT.
AT THIS POINT APPEARS THAT KOMA/KLNK AT RISK TO SEE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 09Z WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT TSRA ACTIVITY WILL THEN EXIT
KOMA/KLNK BTWN 12Z-13Z. MEANWHILE AT KOFK...CONDITIONS WILL DROP
FROM VFR TO MVFR THRU 13Z THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL -SHRA. AFT
13Z MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z...THEN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
DEE
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE MBRFC RELEASED A NEW SET OF LONG RANGE CREST FORECASTS FOR THE
MISSOURI RIVER BASED ON 160 KCFS RELEASE OUT OF GAVINS POINT. IN
GENERAL...THE BROAD RANGES STILL SEEM ON TRACK. NO ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING LEVEES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STAGE AT
BROWNVILLE APPEARS TO BE LEVELING OUT...THUS EQUALIZING THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP DUE TO THE L550 BREECH THAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEWALD