FXUS63 KOAX 242048
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
348 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA...IOWA AND
MISSOURI WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA PAN HANDLE. THIS MEANS A GOOD RETURN FLOW WAS SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID 60 DEW POINT AIR IN EAST KANSAS WAS
NOSING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST
WEST ALONG SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REACHING PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WEST HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR EAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL
LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
IN REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE OVERNIGHT.
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NAM WHICH HAS SOME 50 KNOT WINDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 09Z.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
START OUT WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS...WITH AN EAST TO WEST H85 THETA-E AXIS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FEED ON THIS MOISTURE WITH CONVECTION FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
DECREASING AND MOVING FARTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
IS AGRESSIVE WITH SOME VERYHIGH QPF. THE 4KM WRM/HRRR/NAM/GFS/EC
ALL BRING TSRA ACROSS...HOWEVER EACH...IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON
HOW THEY EVOLVE. TENDED MORE WITH THE 4KM WRF WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ALSO NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IN
ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY
DRY TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.
SATURDAY NIGHT ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID TROPOSPHERIC
LOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH FROM WASHINGTON AND MONTANA
NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
KEEPS THESE STORMS NORTH AND THE NAM KEEPS IT OUT OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE EC CONTINUES IT FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BUILD IN...BUT THINK SOME STORMS COULD MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL TROF MAKES IT
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT FROM MINNESOTA
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. TSRA WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER SOUTH...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR
THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND TSRA COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. DURING THE DAY...STORMS MAY BE CAP...BUT MAY DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH TSRA ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH THE STORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WEEK.
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. AFTER SATURDAY...NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
AFTER 09Z BROUGHT -TSRA IN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME
MVRF DUE TO -TSRA IN TAFS BUT WOULD EXPECT LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF STRONGER STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT SOME
LIFR CIGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. TRENDED THAT DIRECTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT DID NOT JUMP TOTALLY ON BOARD AT THIS TIME THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MEYER/ZAPOTOCNY/MEYER