FXUS63 KOAX 270849
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
348 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN CWA ON E/W AXIS OF
BACKING LLVL JET AT 850MB IN THE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SITUATED
ALONG NEB/KS BORDER INTO NRN MO. MEANWHILE OUTFLOW FORCED BNDRY HAS
KICKED OFF ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION FROM NE-SW NEB. UPPER SUPPORT
VIA STOUT 850-250MB DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE RESULTING IN GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING SOUTH THRU THE DAKOTAS. 88D MOSAIC TRENDS AS WELL AS
LATEST HRRR-3KM PROG SUGGEST STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE SRN CWA
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT MODELS SHOW
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION.
LATE TUESDAY MODELS PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE OHIO VLY...
ALLOWING MOIST BACKSIDE FLOW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...BNDRY LYR MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL WITH
THETA-E INDICES AROUND -13C SUGGESTING HIGH POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION...CONSIDERING STRONG 310K UPGLIDE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CAPPING STRENGTH WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY WHEN WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT ISOLATED CONVECTION
FIRING ON EASTERN EDGE OF CAP AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF LLVL JET.
DRY AND MUCH WARMER THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOME IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN WITH COLD FRONT OVER ERN NEB THIS
MORNING WAS PUSHING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION INTO NW MO/NE KS. MAIN AVN
ISSUE THEN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS BEHIND FRONTAL PUSH. RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING THRU
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TWD THE EARLY EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PD. NO CROSSWIND ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$