FXUS63 KOAX 272028
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH
MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN PUBLIC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...
MAINLY FOR THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BE
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. HAVE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
AT ALL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS AREA OF SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS...WITH AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. IT IS STILL EARLY TO
SAY WHERE THE STORMS WILL FORM...HOWEVER PRESENT INDICATIONS SHOW
THE WINDS VEERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE...HAVE SOME CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE
FOR THURSAY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 80S...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUD COVER
HOLDS ON MORE THAN EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE MORE HIGHS IN THE 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL ALSO KEEP MORNING LOWS MILD FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE STRONGER
FORCING PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS NOT
RETURNED TO THE AREA YET. DUE TO THE HEAT...THE INSTABILITY IS ON
THE HIGH SIDE AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEER FOR STORMS.
THE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ON THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SIDE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. THE MID LEVE FLOW
FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER
NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG THE
FRONT AND THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECWMF HAS MORE OF A
RIDGE IN THE AREA WITH THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD A COMPROMISE WHICH IS NOT AS HOT AND DRY AS THE
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MOSTLY 08Z TO 13Z BUT DID NOT
GO WITH THAT FOR 18Z TAFS. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THAT AGAIN THIS
EVENING BUT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF IT WILL OCCUR. MOST LIKELY
SPOT THAT COULD SEE FOG IS KOMA. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY/MILLER