FXUS63 KOAX 092032
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011
.DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WHILE
SOUTHERN CWA MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
IN ID...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...AND WITH
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF ONLY 40M INDICATING SYSTEM IS FILLING. 850MB
FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN SOUTHWEST KS/OK PANDHANDLE THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN NEB/SOUTHWEST IA...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL
KS...WITH WARM FRONT SNAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH KSLN-KFNB-KCDJ AND
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD. VIS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A
DEVELOPING CU FIELD IN SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST
MO...THOUGH 19Z RUC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CAPPING STILL REMAINS TO
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN INTERMITTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM FRONT LIFTING AND PIVOTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING WILL BRING THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER-LEVEL WAVE/850MB LOW
EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS...BUT TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS IF STORMS CAN TRACK
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PICK UP SOME LOW-LEVEL SPIN. STORMS WILL
EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX THAT MOVES INTO IA THIS EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER THAT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS EVENING IN THE EAST...WITH
LOWER POPS SOUTH/WEST FOR LOWER COVERAGE. SECONDARY COMPLEX HAS
BEEN NOTED BY MODELS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KS BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHEAST
NEB...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT AND PRECIP TO PUSH EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA. KEPT AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
RETURN FLOW FOLLOWS THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY AS NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN US AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES AWAY TO THE EAST. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS MAY SKIRT THE WESTERN CWA. BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS AS
AN MCS REMNANT OF THE CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AS THE
850MB BOUNDARY SHARPENS ACROSS NEB/NORTHERN MO. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THEN SLIDES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH TUESDAY. TOUGH TO NAIL
DOWN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL PRECIP EVENTS IN THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT
SHOULD SEE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
QUIET PERIODS BETWEEN. PATTERN SHOULD QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE EJECTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR A DAY OR SO.
PATTERN LIKELY WILL RELOAD ITSELF BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT OF NEXT
WEEK AS NEXT UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US...THOUGH
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING PATTERN
EVOLUTION...LET ALONE INDIVIDUAL PRECIP EVENTS. DOES APPEAR THAT
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PD BUT MAY GO IFR
FOR A TIME IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL
MOST LIKELY HIT KLNK AND KOMA AND REMAIN OUT OF KOFK...ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$
MAYES/KERN