FXUS63 KOAX 090758
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2011
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR WITHIN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
WELL DEFINED AND VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN IA TO
SWRN KS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW THIS SFC FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE
NEXT 48HRS OR SO GIVEN THAN THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE UPPER JET
WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN ORIENTED SW-NE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH NAM AND GFS NOT SHOWING THIS...LATEST 3KM-HRRR AND RUC13
ARE INDICATING THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND HANG IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA THRU LATE THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION PUSHES INTO CNTRL KS.
THRU TONIGHT THEN...EXPECT SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WILL NUDGE SFC BNDRY BACK SOUTH AND INDUCE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENT ZONE IN MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
BULK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN FILTERS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODELS ADVERTISING MOISTURE POOLING/DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE SRN CWA IN THE AFTN. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH
OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT DISCOUNT STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF I-80. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THEN ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE WRN CWA PERIPHERY SATURDAY NIGHT
WHEN INSTABILITY/LLVL MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP FROM KS INTO CNTRL NEB.
THUS WILL INCLUDE SMALL OVERNIGHT POPS.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THE TAFS THIS PERIOD WITH
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHEN IT MIGHT AFFECT
INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE I80
VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING LOOKED LIKE IT INITIALLY COULD CLIP BOTH
KLNK/KOMA ALTHOUGH NOW APPEARS IT MAY STAY TO THE NORTH...UNLESS NEW
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. LATER ON...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
AFFECT KLNK/KOMA BY 10/00Z...AND POSSIBLY AT KOFK. ALSO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY 15-18Z...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 12 KNOTS SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-22 KNOTS.
WALDO
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$