FXUS63 KOAX 062000
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...THROUGH
TOMORROW...AS ONE MORE HOT DAY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY STAY UP A BIT MORE THAN LAST NIGHT
THUS WOULD EXPECT MOST LOWS TO BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/NAM INDICATED MAX TEMPS
ON TUESDAY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TDA MOST AREAS AND
WITH UPPER TROUGH NRN ROCKIES PUSHING UPPER RIDGE A BIT SE THAT
MAY BE SO. HOWEVER...WITH SWRLY WINDS CONTINUING AND MIXING LIKELY
DEEP AGAIN...WOULD SUSPECT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THOSE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. THUS BOOSTED A FEW DEGREES...MET/MAV
GUIDANCE GENERALLY LOOKED A BIT TOO COOL. ALSO MIXING DOWN TO 800
MB PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEN INCREASING A BIT NW TO BLEND IN
BETTER WITH ADJACENT LOCATIONS WOULD BRING MOST DWPTS DOWN INTO
50S PERHAPS LOWER 60S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN GENERALLY 100
OR LESS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUED FOR FREMONT COUNTY FOR
POSSIBLE LEVEE FAILURE ALONG MISSOURI RIVER.
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR SERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON/WED NIGHT.
MOISTURE PRETTY STARVED YET TUE NGT BUT DID INSERT SMALL POPS NERN
ZONES CLOSER TO FORCING FROM UPPER TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SEEM TO INCREASE WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS INTO
FRONT...QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH TO SPREAD THEM. BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM
KEPT BULK OF QPF CONFINED TO SRN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
12Z ECMWF MATCHED PREVIOUS RUN IN SPREADING IT FARTHER N. THUS DID
NOT WANT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES FAR N WED NIGHT BUT DID TRIM A
BIT. MEANWHILE WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON POSSIBLE MCS SERN
ZONES WED NIGHT INCREASED INTO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY THERE. HOW
MUCH PRECIP LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN QUESTION AND
ECMWF CONTINUED TO BE QUITE BULLISH IN THAT REGARD. A MID LEVEL
FRONT DOES LIFT BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
TROUGH SO SOME POPS DO SEEM WARRANTED...HOWEVER DID TRIM BACK A
BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON PLUS NAM DID PULL
EVERYTHING ESE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THURSDAY ESPECIALLY SINCE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND IT WILL BE THE SECOND DAY OF COOL ADVECTION.
ANOTHER THROUGH WILL KEEP AREA COOL WITH MODERATELY HIGH POPS ON
FRIDAY. LOWERED AND RAISED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES RESPECTIVELY.
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...WARM FRONT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH AS WELL BRINGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK. CURRENTLY RAN SEVERAL PERIODS OF SLGT
CHANCES AS MODELS HAVE HAD VARYING SOLUTIONS. FORECAST LIKELY TO
FORGO CHANGES...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...LATER. ALSO HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES WARM COULD BE AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/AND MORE
SHOWERS THAN CURRENTLY IN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...PER
LATEST ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/MAYES