FXUS63 KOAX 061637
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2011
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR
TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE WEATHER IS QUIET AND THERE IS LITTLE TO
UPDATE. WITH TEMPS ALREADY POPPING UP INTO THE 90S AT 16Z...HAVE
NUDGED UP TEMPS A BIT IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IN
DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED MIXING...HAVE DRIED DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL MIXING.
MAINTAINED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEAR HAMBURG UNTIL FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP ALREADY SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2011/
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT WHEN LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
WEST COAST NUDGES INLAND AND EJECTS A POTENT VORT MAX UP THRU THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. 10 DAM HGT FALLS SPREADING OVER THE
REGION ALLOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN IN ERN MT BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING THRU THE DAKOTAS
INTO MN. AS THE SFC LOW MIGRATE TWD THE WRN GREAT LAKES...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP SWD AND PUSH INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...SW-NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS RESULTS IN
THE COLD FRONT STALLING FROM ABOUT WRN KS TO ERN IA. PATTERN LEADING
UP TO THIS FAVORABLE FOR INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE. ENVIRONMENT QUITE
UNSTABLE WED AFTN ALONG THE BNDRY AND EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BREAK
OUT OVER THE SRN CWA WHEN CAP WEAKENS. UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO WED
NIGHT WHERE THE BNDRY WILL MEANDER TO...AND WITH LLVL JET INCREASING
REASONABLE TO LEAVE SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER ENTIRE CWA.
DEE
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 12KTS WILL PICK UP
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AFTER 16Z THEN DIE DOWN AGAIN AFTER 01Z.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$
MAYES