FXUS63 KOAX 042007
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT. APPEARS MAIN FRONT HAD SAGGED TO JUST SE
OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z...ALTHOUGH A POSSIBLE WEAK SECONDARY
BOUNDARY PERSISTED JUST NW OF THERE. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO ERN NEBRASKA/WRN IA ON WEST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
NW OF BOUNDARIES IN THIS MOIST PLUME. THUS EVEN THOUGH 4KM WRF AND
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODELS GENERALLY SHOWED MAIN
CONVECTION CLUSTER THIS EVENING DEVELOPING NEAR BOUNDARY SE OF
FORECAST AREA...KEPT IN MODEST POPS SERN ZONES AND TAPERED THEM
OFF NW OF THERE. LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT SOME POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION LIFTING FARTHER NE TOWARD OMA PER 12Z NAM/GFS AND
ECMWF AND SHIFTED MODEST POPS NEWD AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...THIS
SCENARIO WAS NOT SUPPORTED BY 4KM WRF WHICH DID NOT DEVELOP PCPN
FARTHER NORTH LATER TONIGHT THUS KEPT LATE NIGHT POPS BELOW LIKELY
CATEGORY.
CHERMOK
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD COULD STILL TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
GREAT...AND MAY BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL TOO
CLOSE TO CALL...THUS LEFT PREVIOUS POPS IN. TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID 80S NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT IN THE LOWER 90S
SOUTH. THE FRONT DOES PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...
WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A VERY HOT DAY WITH HIGHS MOVING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. NAM SUGGESTED HITTING 100 WAS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS...BUT THOUGH THAT WAS JUST A BIT TOO HIGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COULD BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER AS
FIRST WARM BUBBLE SEEMS TO PUSH NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER ONE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS HINTING AT A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY OF THE FORECAST AND KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF IT
TURNED OUT MORE LIKE A DAY LIKE TODAY WHERE THERE REMAINS SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...BUT NOTHING VERY IMPRESSIVE.
CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
TIED TO THE FRONT...WHICH IN TYPICAL FASHION...STALLS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH....THEN BEGINS HEADING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN WITH
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DEWALD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOT MANY CHANGES WITH ONGOING MISSOURI RIVER FLOODING...OTHER THAN
GAVINS POINT DAM RELEASES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAMPING
UP...WITH WATER LEVELS ON A SLOW INCREASE...ALTHOUGH SHOULD START
TO SEE SHARP RISES BEGINNING AT DECATUR BY MONDAY THEN WORKING
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OMAHA BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ALSO OF CONCERN...
ALTHOUGH NOTHING THAT CAN BE DONE...ARE POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINS NEAR THE HEADWATERS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN MONTANA DURING
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIODS. WE ALSO DID HEAR OF WATER TRICKLING
THROUGH A LEVEE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI...IN THE HAMBURG
BEND CONSERVATION AREA...ALTHOUGH NO MAJOR PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED
IN THAT AREA YET.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF STALLED FRONT AND AT 18Z IT APPEARED IF TSTMS WOULD
AFFECT TAF SITES IT WOULD BE MAINLY AT KLNK/KOMA AND FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
PROB30 GROUPS AT THOSE SITES FROM EARLIER TAF. DID NOT INCLUDE
PRECIP CHANCES AT KOFK. NONETHELESS...CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT NOT VERY HIGH.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$