FXUS63 KOAX 232036
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CENTERED AROUND TSTM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
WITH TROF EXTENDING DOWN THE WESTERN STATES. AT THE SFC...AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. 850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL SLIDE NORTH OUT OF KANSAS AND
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS LLVL JET
INCREASES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO MCS AND SLIDE
EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL AND NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO IOWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER MCS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE
EAST...EVOLVING INTO ANOTHER MCS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CWA AND NOSE OF VEERED LLVL JET
MOVES INTO SERN NEBRASKA TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY. OVERALL...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND TO REMAIN DRY WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY
PROVIDING A FEW CHANCES OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS WEAK WAVES RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KOFK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE AT KOMA AND KLNK...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/FOLTZ