FXUS63 KOAX 240723
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
223 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY...BUT
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WHETHER
IT WOULD CLIP FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...BUT FEEL THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT AM
EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER IMPULSE ROLLS OUT OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHEN
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AND A STALLED EAST/WEST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...THE 60 PERCENT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT LOOK ON TARGET...ALTHOUGH WILL TRIM JUST A BIT NEAR THE
NE/KS BORDER REGION. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT FOR
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AS
LINGERING MCS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. QPF FROM THE NAM SEEMS
OVERDONE...BUT GENERALLY FORECAST ONE HALF INCH OVER THE 12 HOUR
PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE GFS SUGGESTS
ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS...BUT THE NAM/ECMWF ARE GENERALLY DRY
WITH NOT MUCH FORCING EXPECTED. THIS THIS COULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS. ALSO FEEL THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
MCS TO MOVE THROUGH...WHICH APPEARS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MOSTLY NORTH OF I80.
DIDNT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
NIL AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THRU THE FCST PD. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE IN THOUGH JUST BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD.
DEE
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE L550 LEVEE BREECH THAT OCCURRED 3 MILES NORTH OF BROWNVILLE
YESTERDAY EVENING AFTER 9 PM APPEARS TO ONLY BE IMPACTING THE
MISSOURI SIDE OF THE RIVER...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR THAT AREA. THE RIVER AT BROWNVILLE HAS DROPPED 1.3 FEET SINCE THE
BREECH IN THE LAST 5 HOURS SO IT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...
ALTHOUGH WE DONT HAVE MANY DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF DESCENT
APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED JUST A BIT IN THE LAST HOUR.
DEWALD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$