FXUS63 KOAX 030815
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN REGARDS TO
TIMING HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOCATION OF HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MAIN FEATURE LOCALLY WAS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WAS TRACKING EAST
ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM MINNESOTA INTO IOWA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAD INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN OUR
AREA. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TODAY...BUT HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AS BEST FORCING SHOULD AFFECT THAT AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 50 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
MORNING (WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING) AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z RUN OF THE NAM SEEMED A BIT SLOW WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. USED A BLEND OF HRRR...00Z
NSSL REALTIME WRF AND 00Z ECMWF. NORTHWESTERN ZONES SHOULD HAVE
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY FROM AROUND 80
TO 85 TODAY.
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI. DID MAINTAIN SOME
POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT
WENT DRY IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
APPARENT LACK FORCING FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...DID NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WILL START TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
DECIDED TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES TO JUST THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. MADE FEW IF ANY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LATER IN THE WEEK IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION MAY START TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WHICH WOULD BE A HOTTER AND PROBABLY DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA IN KANSAS...HOWEVER THERE IS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING
THROUGH AND INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE BEING LIFTED OVER THE FRONT
IN NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES. A SECONDARY WEATHER DISTURBANCE DURING
THE DAY AND COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD KEEP STORMS GOING. HAVE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE TSRA THRU AROUND 20-22Z. STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 MPH
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BETWEEN 18-00Z. ISOLATED TSRA MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 00Z...HOWEVER WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW DUE COVERAGE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY