FXUS63 KOAX 031958
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PER 19Z SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS MIXED LAYER
CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED OVER ERN NEBRASKA BEHIND UPPER TROUGH
THAT WAS ALONG MO RIVER AT THAT TIME...AND ALSO BEHIND DEPARTING
SHOWERS IN WRN IA. SO ALTHOUGH SOME RECOVERY REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EVENING...CUT BACK OR REMOVED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SPCLY NW. ALSO ONLY LEFT SLIGHT CHC IN FAR SE AFTER
06Z. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN LOW LVL MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND IN SYSTEMS WAKE...BUT DID NOT HIT EITHER VERY HARD AS
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGHEST. UPPER RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD PROVIDE
AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE
BASED ON H85 TEMPERATURES FORECAST. NOT MUCH SUPPORT SEEN FOR A
PRECIP THREAT UNTIL FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO CROSS FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH
NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON HOW STRONG OF A
PUSH IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL QPF WILL
OCCUR BEHIND IT. CONTINUED SMALL POPS NERN NEBRASKA IN ADVANCE OF
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE MCS ALONG BOUNDARY COULD PUSH IT
INTO THAT AREA...AND LEFT MODEST POPS ON TUESDAY AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD...HIGHEST NORTHEAST ZONES. QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY DEVELOPMENT WAS KEPT ON LOW SIDE AS UPPER HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
REMAIN HIGH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONT IS
QUESTIONABLE.
AS FOR POST-FRONTAL QPF GFS HAS FREQUENTLY BEEN THE MOST BULLISH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT IT ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.
00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT STRONGER WITH A DRY PUSH AND FORECAST MUCH
LESS QPF OVER FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY...PLUS IT HAD
SOME SUPPORT FROM 12Z NAM. HOWEVER...DID NOTICE WITH QUICK GLANCE
THAT 12Z ECMWF GENERATED MORE POST-FRONTAL QPF THAN 00Z RUN INTO
WED AM. SO ALTHOUGH POPS WERE LOWERED...OR EVEN REMOVED PARTS OF
THE NE...WED AFTN INTO THURSDAY...THEY WERE INCREASED A BIT WITH
AND JUST BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER AREA THEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND
RAISED A FEW TEMPS FRI/SAT. LEFT IN SMALL TSTM CHANCES N FRI
NGT/SAT AS GFS FORECAST WEAK/WEAKENING BOUNDARY TOWARD FAR N
THEN...BUT TRIMMED BACK/REMOVED SOUTH END OF PRECIP CHANCES.
INCLUDED TSTM CHANCE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY NEXT SUNDAY
AS 00Z/12Z ECMWF PUSHED A COLD FRONT INTO REGION...ALTHOUGH UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING IT SEWD WAS FORECAST BY ECMWF TO BE STRONGER/FARTHER
S THAN GFS...SO FRONT COULD POSSIBLY BE DELAYED A DAY OR SO.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH 02Z OR SO...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THAT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THRU
THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/KERN