FXUS63 KOAX 100832
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AND STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE OVER SERN U.S. WILL KEEP H5
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THOSE HIGH VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING ISSUES CREATES A LOW CONFIDENCE
THUNDERSTORM/QPF FORECAST. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IS
THAT THE MODEL QPF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNRELIABLE.
THAT SAID IT DOES APPEAR THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST FEW NIGHTS AS UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER SASK/MANITOBA OPENS UP AND BEGINS TRACKING ESE
LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD CREATE A LITTLE STRONGER PUSH TO THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH POSSIBLY AIDING IN AN MCS TRACKING ACROSS
OR INTO NERN NEBRASKA. THUS MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. ACTIVITY
MORE QUESTIONABLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO INCREASINGLY HIGHER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BUT WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND
UPPER RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE SOME POPS MOST OF THE SOUTH. WITH
PROBABLE POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS FORECAST AREA ON
NORTH SIDE OF H85 THERMAL RIDGE...AND FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
IN GUIDANCE BALLPARK...EXPANDED HEAT ADVISORY EWD INTO OMAHA AND
SW IA VICINITY. BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AROUND OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SIMILAR TYPE DEWPOINTS EXTENDED ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH BLEND OF MODELS DEW POINT FORECASTS YIELDED LOWER VALUES
ON MONDAY...AND POSSIBLE MCS SHOVING A BOUNDARY INTO SRN ZONES
KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES WILL BOTH HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH HARD TO REMOVE POPS FROM DAYTIME FORECAST
MONDAY...CHANCES DO APPEAR TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
DOWN ERN ND/NRN MN REGION PROVIDES INCREASED UPSLOPE WRN HIGH
PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD SLIDE ESE
ALONG/NORTH OF FRONT REACHING FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REINFORCING BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN
ZONES AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH OF THERE TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE OF E/NERLY FLOW AND STRATOCU CIGS NORTH OF BOUNDARY LIMITING
HEATING ON TUESDAY INTO WED. SOME ADJUSTING COULD BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR TUE/WED PD AS FRONTS LOCATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED
...BUT FOR NOW KEPT READINGS ON TUESDAY FROM THE MID/UPR 80S FAR
NORTH TO MID 90S FAR SOUTH TUESDAY AND MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ON WED. ANOTHER MCS PROBABLE SOMEWHERE
NEAR/N OF BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUED HIGHER POPS NRN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER SPREADS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE EXTENDED PER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LATEST ECMWF/GFS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FARTHER NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KOFK...KOMA...AND KLNK THROUGH
06Z/11TH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 100SCT-BKN TO 150-SCT-BKN ARE
FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
KOFK VICINITY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/SMITH