FXUS63 KOAX 101930
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH A PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP NEAR THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER. 12Z GFS AND NAM VERY SIMILAR IN HANDLING
THIS FEATURE WHICH ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL DEAL WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE NOCTERNAL HEAVY
RAIN EVENTS WHICH WOULD COMPOUND CURRENT FLOODING ON THE MISSOURI
RIVER.
TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHILE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WATCH HOW
CONVECTION IMPACTS THE BOUNDARY ON DAY TO DAY BASIS WITH REGARDS
TO LOCATION OF THE SULTRY AIR AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
BEYOND MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOT WEATHER BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH WHILE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ALONG THE WEST COAST. ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED HEADLINES POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME AS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA DIMINISH WITH THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BECOMING THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS STORMS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OR SOUTH DAKOTA MOVE TOWARD
THE AREA. ANY STORMS TO AFFECT EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES WOULD MOST
LIKELY COME IN THE 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR
VSBYS IN STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SOME MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DERGAN