FXUS63 KOAX 170749
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
249 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011
.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AGAIN THIS MORNING. HEAT WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
CENTER OF UPPER HIGH WAS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH STORM
TRACK ARCING FROM COLORADO THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF 13C TO 16C WERE
NOTED AT 700MB ACROSS ALL OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING UPPER RIDGE AND MID TEENS 700MB TEMPS
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MID AMERICA.
THUS RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER 70F WILL ONLY DROP
DURING AFTERNOON MIXING. WHEN THAT OCCURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
HIGHS LOOK TO AVERAGE 95 TO 100 FOR ALL OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
WEEK...AND PERHAPS THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS TOPPED 90 THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT 9 OR 10 DAYS IN A ROW OF
90+ TEMPS. AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD
AVERAGE 105 TO 115. THUS OUR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT IN
TIME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$