FXUS63 KOAX 161941
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
241 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 12Z WAS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS...AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z KOAX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS /~95 OVER 75/ INDICATED STRONG CAPE...BUT AROUND -30
J/KG OF MLCIN AT PEAK HEATING. NEVERTHELESS...MOST MODELS WANT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER SE
NEB/NE KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MARGINALLY WEAK CIN...BUT CHANCES
LOOK VERY LOW ATTM. WILL MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS WHETHER TO
INCLUDE A SMALL EVENING POP OR NOT. OTHERWISE...HOT...HUMID AND
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT NEXT WEEK. LITTLE
CHANGE IN GOING FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR GRIDS WERE MADE WITH THIS
PACKAGE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIXING...AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES...DID
LOWER HIGHS A TOUCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN/MON/TUE...BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL AT OR ABOVE 105 FOR ALL 3 DAYS. LITTLE
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SOME HINT
AT A FRONT NEARING THE AREA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
POPS ATTM. IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...HEAT HEADLINES
MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE EXTENDED INTO THU/FRI BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DO THAT AT THIS TIME RANGE.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$