FXUS63 KOAX 190800
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE MAIN FACTOR
IN THE FORECAST INITIALLY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME.
RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TRACKS INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER THURSDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT ON FRIDAY AS NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND SERIES
OF WEAK IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER FLOW TO
ACT ON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE
EDGE OFF THE HEAT BUT NOT MUCH DRIER AIR INDICATED SO HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN AND KEEP UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AROUND.
THIS PATTERN EXTENDS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND
GFS HANDLE SURFACE FEATURES DIFFERENTLY. RIDGE THEN REBUILDS NORTH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE 09Z TO 13Z
PERIOD THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. WILL AMEND IF NEEDED.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER