FXUS63 KOAX 182016
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MID TO UPPER 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...MORE OR LESS...THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY 00Z THURSDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED
TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE THEREAFTER. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
OPPORTUNITIES BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY. WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES THROUGHOUT.
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 23 TO 27C RANGE...SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT STARTING THURSDAY AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND 23C...ALLOWING HIGHS TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING ENTERS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDICIES REMAIN AROUND 110 DURING THE DAYTIME
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MEYER
DISCUSSION...PEARSON