FXUS63 KOAX 240834
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTHEAST INTO
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. A SECONDARY LLVL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME SERN NEB AND SW IA.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH. IN ADDITION...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SERN NEB AIDING
IN CONTINUED TSTM ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN
AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
AND THEN REMAIN NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ALONG WITH THE MOIST AXIS.
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THRU WL LIKELY SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF SERN NEB AND SWRN IA. WL ALSO CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY COULD BE AIDED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. CHANCES WL
DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE IN THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME COULD
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SO WL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND ROLL
IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON THIS SO WL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE...NOW MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS S OUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. TSRA ARE FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KOFK AND KOMA. ISOLATED
TSRA MAY AFFECT THE KLNK VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z AT KOFK AS LOW CLOUDS OF BKN015-BKN030
ADVECTS IN. MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE INTO KOMA AFTER 13Z AND KLNK
AFTER 18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/SMITH