FXUS63 KOAX 241953
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
253 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGESTING GOING FCST IS IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THRU DAY 7. NAM/GFS/ECM/CMC ALL BASICALLY ADVERTISING SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROFS MIGRATING ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL HELP KEEP
THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME THAT DOMINATES THE LOWER 48 FROM AMPLIFYING
TOO MUCH UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY. FOR TONIGHT HAVE FOCUSED POPS SOUTH IN
RELATION TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MOIST BNDRY LYR/INSTABILITY AXIS. AM
RATHER IMPRESSED HOW YESTERDAY AFTN HRRR3 PROGS CAUGHT THE
CONVECTION...AND LATEST RUN IS AGAIN POINTING DEVELOPMENT SOUTH THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS OCCURRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER GIVEN LAMP-
GFS CONVECTION PROBABILITY AND 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM COMPLIMENTING HRRR3.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLE THAT MCS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WHERE BEST UPGLIDE FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. MUCINS THOUGH
AROUND -125J/KG AS WELL AS HIGH LID STRENGTH VALUES SUGGEST CAP WILL
BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE NRN CWA AND HINDER ANY ACTIVITY FROM MOVING
IN.
NRN SHORTWAVE AND SFC REFLECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHICH EVENTUALLY STALLS...AND BECOMES THE
FOCUS FOR PCPN CHANCES OVER THE REGION. THE STALLED FRONT IS THEN
ADVERTISED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH BY SATURDAY WHEN MODEST
AMPLIFICATION OF CONUS HIGH PRESSURE DOME TAKES PLACE. UNTIL TILL
THEN...APPEARS THAT AFTN HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE
CWA ONCE AGAIN FALLS UNDER MOIST WAA REGIME ON SUNDAY. GFS EVEN
SUGGESTING SULTRY CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AFTN BY PUSHING HEAT
INDICES TO AROUND 100-105 DEG.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY AT ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER AM EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BY AROUND 06Z...EVENTUALLY
DROPPING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS AND FOG BY 09-10Z.
COULD TEMPORARILY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA 11-14Z. WHILE THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AT KLNK/KOMA...
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT ANY SPECIFIC TIME JUST YET
AND DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL THEY DEVELOP TO GET A BETTER HANDLE OF
WHEN AND WHERE THEY MIGHT BE NEEDED.
&&
DEWALD
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$