FXUS63 KOAX 280750
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
NAM/GFS/ECM IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROF AND SFC REFLECTION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. CURRENTLY...LEADING EDGE OF FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NERN IA TO WRN KS. MODELS ALL SHOWING BNDRY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH TODAY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
THOUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO EVENTUALLY STALL OUT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS KS/MO/IL. SFC BNDRY THEN PROGGED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY WITH GOOD BNDRY LYR MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE PLAINS. GOING FCST REASONABLE WITH POPS DECREASING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE TIME PERIOD TODAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
PLENTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE BNDRY TO TAP.
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES 150-200% OF NORM...AND AS OF NOW APPEARS THAT THE SRN CWA
WILL SEE HIGHEST PCPN ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE APPROACHING KOFK FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
KLNK FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE 28/06Z ISSUANCE AND TEMPO GROUPS WERE
INCLUDED AT BOTH SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A CHANCE THAT ACTIVITY
WOULD HOLD OFF TO THE NORTH OF KOFK WITH FORMER CLUSTER AND
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KLNK WITH SECOND CLUSTER. STRONG
WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY TSTM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND OUTFLOW
COULD REACH KOFK EVEN IF CONVECTION REMAINS TO THEIR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP IN WAKE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY AND
VARIABLE AND PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND LATER TAF FORECASTS WILL ASSESS
PROBABILITY FOR INCLUSION.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$