FXUS63 KOAX 282005
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE SFC PATTERN WITH A FEW WEAK
OUTFLOW INFLUENCED BOUNDARIES RESIDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN COLD FRONT IS FAIRLY HARD TO DISCERN BUT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE CURRENT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. TWO
AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST BEING
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS WY AND THE SECOND
BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS
BEEN HOLDING ACTIVITY BACK FOR LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS SKIES CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-1500J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MO
VALLEY IN THE UPPER 70S. PW'S WILL REMAIN AOA 2.00 INCHES SO THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO KS AND MO OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND HEAT.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CURRENTLY FEATURES A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BACK WEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN UP
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAIRLY FAST
500 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTERED OVER
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/MISSOURI. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO OVER
5960 METERS...PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TRY TO
BECOME CAPPED OFF IN OUR AREA...WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTH. HEAT WILL BUILD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LIKELY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HEADLINE FOR
HEAT SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY...AND EVEN MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
THE 500 MB RIDGE SHOULD START TO FLATTEN BY MID WEEK...WITH A TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN STALL OVER THE AREA OR POSSIBLY JUST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VARIABLE VFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS A
FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP. HAVE KEPT A FEW TEMPO GROUPS GOING
FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND DID INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KLNK LATER TONIGHT AS CONVECTION FOLLOWS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT THRU THE AREA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...MILLER