FXUS63 KOAX 310739
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
239 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011
.DISCUSSION...
HEAT REMAINS THE CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN HEAD BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TODAY...THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MONDAY...AND EVEN IN THE MID
90S AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE
TODAY WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
RANGE AROUND 105 TODAY...AROUND 110 TO 112 ON MONDAY...AND 105 TO
110 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 ON TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY
IN EFFECT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY...
BUT THEN DROPPED FOR TUESDAY FOR AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
IN GENERAL...THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...A MOIST AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. THE SREF AND GFS HINT AT A
VERY SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY. A HEALTHY CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THUS AM NOT CONFIDENT
THAT ANYTHING COULD POP GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER FORCING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CONSISTENCY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL...IN TYPICAL FASHION SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT
13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT THEN UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF IFR
BTWN 01/09Z-12Z.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ045-
051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$