FXUS63 KOAX 312040
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
A MID TROSPHERIC RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN
PUSHED WEST AND NORTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE WAS A VORT MAX
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL EVEN BE MUCH FOR CLOUD
COVER BELOW 9000 FEET TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT...
WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AND OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS DENSE.
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE MOSTLY 72 TO 76.
MILLER
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE HEAT AND THEN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY GOING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO
112. WILL BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND AN UPGRADE TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. SOME FOG WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN BURN OFF...GET MIXED OUT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS MONDAY AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP WITH WARM ADVECTION AND RETURNING DEEPER MOISTURE. DUE TO
VERY ISOLATED NATURE WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM...IN COORD WITH
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT
CAN MONITOR ACCAS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD FALLS CITY
BY 7PM TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD MAINLY RANGE FROM
95 TO 100 AND ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S IN THE NORTH TO
NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
THE 70S.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE IN THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOCAL
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 2
INCHES TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...AS THE REAL HOT AIR
SHOULD STILL BE TO THE SOUTH IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND MID
TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING THRU THE RIDGE. THE
TIMING IS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WITH SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAINLY 12 KTS OR LESS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY 08Z TO 14Z
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOME IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15Z MONDAY.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>044-050.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-
090-091.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$