FXUS63 KOAX 121527 AAA
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1027 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MAIN CONCERNS IN REGARDS
TO TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM
12Z STILL SHOWED PLENTY OF 850 MB AND 700 MB MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. CUTOFF LOW AT 500 MB WAS LOCATED NEAR THE BORDER OF
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED
IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW FROM ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO UP INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THE REST OF THE DAY. SURFACE FRONT WAS OVER
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THEN DOWN INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS LATER
TODAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...PATTERN IS NOT QUITE AS CLEAR AS IT WAS THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS BUT WILL BE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT...AND EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.
MILLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND TSTM CHANCES OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
ONGOING MCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO ROLL NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DROPPING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIKELY STRONG WINDS.
THINK MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30
CORRIDOR THRU SUNRISE.
DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PIN DOWN TIMING AND LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS
OVER NEXT 36 HOURS. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVER
NEXT FEW DAYS. WK SFC FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN KS WL MOVE NORTH OVER
SERN NEB TODAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO NRN KS LATER TODAY
KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOLER SIDE. LOWER
TO MID 90S IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY.
00Z MODELS DO INDICATE SOME CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP WL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME BUT WL
HAVE TO CONTINUE A CHANCE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOCTURNAL LLVL
JET SHOULD HELP AID IN CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO WED MORNING.
WARM AIR RETURNS BY THURSDAY AND WL CONTINUE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THURSDAY.
KERN
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
ON THE WHOLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
MAIN CONCERN THOUGH IS SCATTERED TSRA THE NEXT 24HRS ASSOCIATED WITH
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ERN NEB. EXPECT TSRA AT KOFK UNTIL
ABOUT 12/13Z...AND KOMA BTWN 12/10Z-13Z. APPEARS THAT CURRENT LINE
OF CONVECTION OVER CNTRL NEB IS LIFTING EAST AND WILL NOT AFFECT
KLNK. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT KOMA/KLNK BTWN
12/22Z-13/02Z FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA. LATEST TAF FOR KOFK DOES NOT HAVE
PROB30 GROUP IN 2ND HALF OF FCST...BUT ANTICIPATED ADDING AT 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$