FXUS63 KOAX 121951
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN IS NOT QUITE AS CLEAR RELATIVE TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL
PATTERN IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER STRONG WAVE TRACKING NORTH TOWARD NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS
TRACKING NORTH FROM THE IDAHO AND WYOMING BORDER AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
ACROSS KANSAS AND THEN BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN HOT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COOLER AND WITH
LOWER DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT STORMS AS OF MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST. STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
STORMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. 12Z RUN OF THE 4 KM WRF-NMM FROM NCEP
SHOWED EVENING STORMS BUT NOT A LOT FOR LATER TONIGHT. 12Z NAM HAD
HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS WITH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY INITIALLY WILL BE THE PERSISTENCE OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEGINNING WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.
HEADLINES FOR HEAT LOOK LIKELY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA REACHED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. IF
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HOLDS INTO FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS INDICATED IN CURRENT FORECAST...EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED. EVENING HWO WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY TO AFFECT KOMA AND KLNK
THROUGH MID EVENING. LARGE AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT KOFK. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KOFK...BUT DID NOT MENTION THOSE AT THIS
TIME. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TONIGHT STILL UNCERTAIN
SO DID INCLUDE SOME PROB30 GROUPS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER