FXUS63 KOAX 262019
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT ANTICIPATED COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NRN CWA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PROGGED WITH 300MB MU-CAPE IN THE 4000-5000
J/KG RANGE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES PUSHING 2"-2.5" INCHES. DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT.
COMPOSITE PARAMETERS PER THE NAM SHOWING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
SHEAR...0-6KM 40-50KT/EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50KT. COUPLE OF NAM PROGS
GIVING CONFLICTING INFORMATION WHETHER CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE. MU-CIN
RELATIVELY HIGH...100-200 J/KG. LID STRENGTH VALUES THOUGH GENERALLY
LESS THAN 2 SUGGEST NIL CAP INFLUENCE. AT ANY RATE...MODELS KEEP
THE SFC BNDRY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...
THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE.
REMOP GIVING SHOWING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WARM CORE HIGH
PRESSURE DOME WILL BEGIN RETROGRADE NEXT SATURDAY AND FORCE RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. INTERESTING DISCREPANCY THOUGH
BETWEEN GFS AND ECM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY REGARDING TIMING COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. 26/00Z ECM RUN IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORCING THE CAA SWD ASSOCIATED WITH STOUT UPPER TROF
CROSSING SRN CANADA.MEANWHILE 26/06Z GFS KEEPS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS IN WAA REGIME.
SMALL POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT RELATED TO STALLED SFC BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN THRU THE
CWA INTO NRN MO. BNDRY EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. NOTE...
GFS ENSEMBLE IS LENDING SOME SUPPORT THE ECM CAA SOLUTION.
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WILL OPT FOR DRY FCST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SULTRY CONDITIONS PROBABLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING/AROUND 110 DEG.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND COULD AFFECT KOFK FROM
27TH/09-13Z...AND KOMA FROM 27TH/12-16Z. DECIDED TO LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE KLNK TAF AS THERE WASN/T ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH.
DEWALD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ052-053-066>068-
088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-
091.
&&
$$