FXUS63 KOAX 260825
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
.DISCUSSION...
MCS REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS IN
SKY/POPS OTHERWISE APPEARS REPEAT IN THE WORKS FOR LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS FARTHER
NE...ASSOCIATED HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHOVED FARTHER E
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO CNTRL SD/RN ND BY WED AM. THUS BOOSTED
POPS NW 1/3 INTO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AND INCLUDED SOME 1/2 INCH
QPF TOTALS. PER CURRENT TRENDS...OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY COULD HAVE
SOME DIFFICULTY WORKING FARTHER SE INTO UPPER RIDGE...BUT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...IF A STRONG ENOUGH
COLD POOL DEVELOPS COULD ENVISION MCS RACING ACROSS MUCH OF...IF NOT
ALL OF CWA THROUGH WED MORNING. CONVECTIVE AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THEN ARE TRICKY ON WEDNESDAY AS REMNANT CLOUDS COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PUSH AHEAD OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT REDUCING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON LATTER. WITH THIS
FORECAST CARRIED MODESTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS NERN 1/2 OR SO OF
FORECAST AREA WED MORNING THEN EXPANDED THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SW INTO SERN NEBR IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS
FORECAST INDICATED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET FAR SERN
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREA POSSIBLY EXPANDING ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/NEW DEVELOPMENT WED AFTN
PUTS NWRN FRINGES MORE AT RISK OF COOLER THAN FORECAST
INDICES. THUS AT THIS TIME RESTRICTED ADVISORY TO FAR SE BUT DID
EXTEND IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST
INTO UPPER 90S-100.
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD
AS PREVIOUS PERIODS CONVECTION INFLUENCES FRONTAL LOCATION/BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY KEPT IDEA OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NE ON
WED NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTH/SE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WAS
REFLECTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SUPPORTED BY 00Z ECMWF. A
GENERAL BUT SLIGHT COOLING TREND WAS CONTINUED INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
ABSENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUDINESS...WHICH APPEARED
UNLIKELY N ON FRIDAY...COOLING AT H85 DID NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO
KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH BELOW 0Z MEX GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY...THUS BUMPED
UP SLIGHTLY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13-14Z DUE TO FOG. AFTER
14-15Z...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 14-15Z AT
KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ091-093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ090-091.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/SMITH