FXUS63 KOAX 071942
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
242 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. REMNANTS OF AN MCV ACROSS
THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY COULD BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER WHERE WINDS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR GOING COMPLETELY CALM. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THAT REGION...BUT DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING THIS FAR SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...THUS REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAD GOING FOR THE AREA BETWEEN SIOUX CITY
AND OMAHA.
NEXT APPROACHING WAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BACKED OFF
ON THE TIMING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TRIMMED THE EASTERN
EXTENT JUST A BIT. WHATEVER DEVELOPS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH A FLAT RIDGE CENTER JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL ESSENTIALLY
PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA WITHING THE MONSOONAL PERIPHERY OF
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS NUMEROUS UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS UNDULATE THROUGH THE REGION. BY ABOUT TUESDAY THOUGH...THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WHICH LEAD TO AN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
PUSHING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AT LEAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST ABOUT A DAILY
CHANCE OF STORMS. THUS RELIED MORESO ON THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST. POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR VSBY IN FOG IN THE 10Z-14Z
FRAME WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$