FXUS63 KOAX 070856
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
356 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2011
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION.
A LOOK AT THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO
THETA-E ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROF IN NORTHWEST FLOW. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
THE COLDEST TOPS WITH THE CONVECTION IN KANSAS IN THIS IS WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK WAVE WAS ALSO
NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR OVER PARTS OF WYOMING.
TODAY THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND BY
18Z EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN THRU IOWA INTO ERN KANSAS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ZONES WITH ISOLATED FARTHER NORTH. THIS
AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OCCUR...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
LITTLE CAP COULD OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE. ALSO...THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MINOR WAVE IN THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS COULD HELP GET A FEW STORMS
STARTED. FOR NOW...LEFT IN LOW POPS FOR CONTINUITY.
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SOMETHING ISOLATED COULD DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST FLOW...TOO
LOW A PROBABILITY TO MENTION. FRIDAY...HAVE THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY...EXCEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE
PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AS H85 FLOW
INCREASES FROMT THE SOUTH. THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS...HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD TRY
TO WORK INTO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH BETTER SHEAR IN THE DAKOTAS. THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE STORMS THAT FORM...WILL NEED TO MONITOR HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD. THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO ROCKIES
AND ON TO THE PLAINS...WHERE A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
NEBRASKA...IOWA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE
H85 THERMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE TOWARD LINCOLN SHOULD
SPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARD THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z OR SO BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. WITH 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IT APPEARED ACTIVITY WOULD
STAY WSW OF KOMA...SO NO MENTION WAS MADE AT KOMA WITH THAT
ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...AFTER CONVECTION PRESSES SOUTH OF AREA THIS
MORNING...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
ACROSS NORTH OF COMPLEX FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AFTER ABOUT 07/14Z AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
LIFT/BREAK UP. OUTSIDE OF IMMEDIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING WIND
FIELD EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH FORECAST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/CHERMOK