FXUS63 KOAX 061931
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WITH AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
NEXT IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE MOISTURE
AXIS AGAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHICH COULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THIS KIND OF LEAVES AREAS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND WESTERN IOWA GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WILL STILL ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE FOR VERY LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TRENDS FOR THURSDAY REMAIN...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVECTIVE AREAS CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS LEAVES THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A
SOMEWHAT LOWER OVERALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT STILL A SMALL CHANCE
THAT SOMETHING COULD STILL POP.
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
PERIOD AS BOTH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL
IN OUR AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AS WE'RE
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS AND A WEAK RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A GENERALLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS...THAT
WILL PLACE THE FORECAST ARE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MONSOONAL RING
OF MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF I80 RIGHT
ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO UNDULATE NORTH ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN BACK SOUTH
MONDAY...AND THEN BACK NORTH AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S GENERALLY...DEPENDENT ON WHICH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MORE OF A WETTER THAN DRY PATTERN.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD DEVELOPING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE REGION
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z. NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER THE DAKOTAS FORECAST BY HRRR TO DROP INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
01Z WITH SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE SITES AFTER 06Z.
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY WITH PERIOD OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST AND WINDS STAY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$