FXUS63 KOAX 152014
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST CONCERNS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA...HOWEVER...WARM UNSTABLE
SOUTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL
JET COULD SUSTAIN STRONGER STORMS INTO OUR CWA HAVE MENTIONED
SCATTERED TSRA FOR PARTS OF ECNTRL AND NE NEBRASKA TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
LOWS SHOULD BE VERY MILD IN THE 70S.
ZAPOTOCNY
.LONG TERM...TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS HEAT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. STEEP
MID-SUMMER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US FROM THIS WEEKEND
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FINALLY
HELPS BREAK IT DOWN LATE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE
MEANTIME...MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
CONTINUED HEAT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. HEAT WILL
INCREASE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CAN COME THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW...BUT TIMING ON THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND
VARIABLE AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS...RANGING FROM LATER THURSDAY ON THE
EARLY SIDE TO LATER FRIDAY ON THE LATE SIDE...AND POSSIBLY NOT
REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEYOND THAT.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER IN REACHING HEAT INDEX READINGS ABOVE
105 ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THAN IT IS FOR TOMORROW...WHEN PARTS OF THE
CWA MAY BE AFFECTED BY SOME CLOUD DEBRIS EARLY IN THE DAY. FOR THAT
REASON...AND FOR CONSISTENCY OF MESSAGE INTERNALLY AND AMONG
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE CONVERTED EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO WARNING
ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. CURRENT GRIDS SUPPORT CONTINUED HEAT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND FRIDAY FOR
PART OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE LIMITED HEADLINE TIMING FOR NOW. MAY
SEE SHOWERS/THUNDER WHEN COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY COMES THROUGH..BUT
WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY.
MAYES
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL EASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. WITH THE STORMS IN BETWEEN THE TAF
SITES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TONIGHT
TO INCLUDE TSRA. FOR NOW INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR STORMS TONIGHT...AND
INCLUDED CB.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ034-044-
045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$