FXUS63 KOAX 160850
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
350 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS MORNING...HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE.
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TRIGGERED
CONVECTION IN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY EVENING. AN EAST
AND NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED STORMS THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT BULK OF HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WAS PUSHING TO THE EAST.
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WAS TRACKING TOWARD AND THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF OUR MORNING
PRECIPITATION. EXITING SHORTWAVE AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL JET
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE...AND GFS
AND HRRR CONCUR.
FORECAST ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING INTO THE
REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN
STRENGTH AND POSITION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PUTTING A
594-599 HIGH NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER BEGINNING LATER TODAY.
STORM TRACK WILL BE SHOVED WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA AS BROAD AREA
OF DESCENDING AIR ENVELOPS OUR AREA. THUS COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS EASILY IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEW
POINTS WELL OVER 70. WE ALREADY SAW SOME UPPER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...AND EXPECT THOSE TO REAPPEAR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 105 TO 112
RANGE FOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT HEAT
INDICES REMAINING NEAR 80. THIS LONG DURATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
POSES A DANGER FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES...EVEN IF WE DO NOT HIT
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA IN EVERY LOCATION EVERY AFTERNOON. SO OUR
CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN INTACT.
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE STORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION OR
COOL TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 15Z WITH
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. KLNK LOOKS TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH 12Z
BASED ON RADAR WITH KOFK AND KOMA STAYING DRY. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
THREE SITES BEYOND 15Z WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ034-044-
045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$