FXUS63 KOAX 012022
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A VERY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL MAVE A TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND HELP FLATTEN THE CURRENT
500 MB RIDGE WHICH IS OVER THE PLAINS. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM...SO COVERAGE ISOLATED AT BEST. TIMING FROM THE
12Z NAM ON THE WIND SHIFT SEEMED REASONABLE.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE LATER
TONIGHT COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOWS 70 TO 75 NORTH
AND 74 TO 77 SOUTH.
MILLER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...THEN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE PRIMARY LONG
TERM CONCERNS.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO AN OMAHA LINCOLN LINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF FALLS CITY BE TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 100 IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN
THE 80S IN THE NORTH. INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE PUSH OF DRY AIR SHOULD DROP LOWS WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH...BUT CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA COULD LINGER INTO LOWER 70S.
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE PICKED UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROF TRACKING
ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL NOT AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED AS
WELL...HOWEVER HAVE INCREASED THE POPS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA. THE GFS HAS A SECOND WAVE IN
THE FLOW AND THE 00Z ECWMF IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER THE 12Z EMCWF CAME IN STRONGER. FRIDAY THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THEN INTO IOWA AND
MISSOURI. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SURFACE FRONT
IN KANSAS MAY ALLOW SOME DEVELOPMENT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SATURDAY THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLAT MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN SUNDAY CONTINUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL A BIT DIFFERENT. THE 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEER
INCREASES TO 35 TO 55KTS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA
WITH NEBRASKA AND IOWA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS. THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS MOVING AND SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TEND TO HAVE MORE
WIND WITH THEM.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z WITH SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 12 KTS OR LESS. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF 18Z TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT KOFK
AFTER 12Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE TSRA MENTION AT THIS TIME.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>044-050.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-
090-091.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$