FXUS63 KOAX 010824
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011
.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXISTING FORECAST. MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE
THE BUILDING HEAT...WITH HIGHS MOVING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 112
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
TODAY. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WHETHER ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP THROUGH PEAK HEATING TODAY AS A MOIST AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...BUT JUST DIDN/T
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST YET.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
DAYBREAK...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THE FRONT DOES
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...
AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FRONT WILL BE THE
DIVIDING LING BETWEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH...BUT STILL HOT AND VERY HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH. THUS...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN BEHIND IT. MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON HOW DRY THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS. THE NAM/ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY WOULD REMAIN DRY...WHILE THE
GFS HINTS AT ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS REALLY
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LATER WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TREND IS THERE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DIDN/T MAKE ANY
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THAT FAR OUT.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY AT KOFK AND KLNK BTWN 10Z-14Z THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>044-050.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-
090-091.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$