FXUS63 KOAX 050857
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
357 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011
.DISCUSSION...
TSRA COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED MCV CONTINUE TO CHUG ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOST ACTIVE/STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL BE SETTLING IN OVER NE KS AND INTO NW MO...WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCW WILL WILL TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT A BIT
UNCERTAIN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS REDEVELOPMENT AS RAIN-COOLED
AMS SHOULD INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION...AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCV. DID CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS TONIGHT PRIMARILY
OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA AS UVV WITH LO LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE AIDED BY A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED ACROSS AREA.
00Z PROGS ARE INDICATING STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT THREAT OF SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN
FORCING OF COLD FRONT MAY BECOME ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THESE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS. DELAYED ONSET OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW AMS OVER
AREA TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES 3000-5000 J/KG...WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORM THREAT AS BULK SHEAR
INCREASES INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. DUE TO STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL
TEMPS HAVE STAYED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THESE MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED IF LATER RUNS INDICATE A GREATER THREAT FOR BREAKING
THE CAP.
LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE TSRA THREAT BY
SUNDAY...BUT QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND RETURN LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER THREAT OF TSRA SUN NGT-MON NGT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
A COMPLEX OF SHWRS/TSTMS CONTINUES TO STEADILY PUSH EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEB EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
DECREASE THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEB.
EXPECTING THAT AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
OCCUR...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AT BOTH
KLNK AND KOMA TERMINALS WHICH CURRENT TAF IS FORECASTING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...BUT SOME -SHRA OR -TSRA MAY MOVE
INTO KLNK BY 11Z AND POSSIBLE KOMA BY 13Z. OTHERWISE A VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME
FOG ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF EASTERN NEB. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PATCHY...BUT PERSISTENT IN SOME AREAS. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD
LIFT. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCT
SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z OR SO.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TRUETT