FXUS63 KOAX 052021
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
LIKE YESTERDAY...MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. WILL KEEP BETTER CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING CLOSER
TO THE EXITING SYSTEM. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...MODELS ARE
NOT MOVING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW TONIGHT...AND ARE NOT A GENERATING ANY LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ATTENTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH THROUGH SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA. STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT THINK
THAT CAP WILL BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER 21Z. THE AREA IS UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER CAP
BREAKS DUE TO AMOUNT OF CAPE AND SHEAR AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...THINK
MUCH OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS. MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO
TRAIN.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES...AND MOVE INTO MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH PLACEMENT...HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN FOR MAINLY THE
NEBRASKA ZONES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...KEEPING SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS BY
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.
MIXTURE OF GENERALLY MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND
05Z OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED WEAK...EASTERLY...LOW LEVEL FLOW I AM
ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
05Z AND 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SENA/NIPPER