FXUS63 KOAX 052015
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AT 500 MB EXTENDING FROM OLD
MEXICO UP INTO MN AND WI. CLOSED LOWS ARE LOCATED IN THE ERN U.S.
AND OVER SRN CA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING EAST
OVER THE NRN PLAINS...AIDED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO NERN NE LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. NO PCPN
IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RECOVER TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
BUT REACH AROUND 80 AT THE KS BORDER.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA. FOR NOW...WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...
WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. GENERALLY USED A BLEND
OF NAM AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...WHICH PUTS THE
WARMEST HIGHS IN OUR WRN ZONES (80 TO 85) AND COOLEST ERN AREAS
(75 TO 80).
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROF THAT SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE UPPER FEATURES. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT
POPS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
NO REAL CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH MILD CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 18KTS WILL GUST TO AROUND 23KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SETTLE DOWN TO 5 TO 10KTS AFTER 00Z. WEDNESDAY...A
WIND SHIFT AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN. THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST FIRST AT KOFK AROUND 11-13Z...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH AT 15KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 15Z. THE WIND SHIFT WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TO KOMA AND KLNK 16-18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM....FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY