FXUS63 KOAX 080828
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 AM CDT FRI OCT 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER COUPLE OF MILD DAYS BEFORE OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
TODAY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE
HIGHS JUST BELOW THE RECORDS OF 91 IN OMAHA...90 IN LINCOLN AND 88
IN NORFOLK...ALL OF WHICH OCCURRED IN 1934.
UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS A FEW CATEGORIES COOLER ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST AREAS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE LAST
FEW RUNS...WHICH DECREASES PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. HOWEVER BANDS OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LOW DROPS
SOUTH INTO KANSAS. BASIC PREMISE OF FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT
INTACT...BUT DID TRIM POPS A BIT FROM THE SOUTHEAST CWA INITIALLY ON
SATURDAY...THEN ENDED POPS A LITTLE EARLIER LEAVING MONDAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOLLOWING UPPER LOW AS UPPER TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT IN THE EASTERN STATES LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK
UNDER THIS REGIME...ESPECIALLY AFTER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT AS FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE PRECLUDES MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE FROM A GUSTY SOUTH WIND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY 25 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
NIETFELD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$