FXUS63 KOAX 081953
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
253 PM CDT FRI OCT 8 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN...UPPER LOW...
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES UNDERCUTTING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. AT THE SFC...DISTINCT THERMAL BNDRY
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT WRN SD TO ERN CO WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY EWD ALONG WITH MIGRATING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE NRN ROCKIES SYSTEM CLOSING OFF AS
IT MOVES ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATTER TONIGHT AND BASICALLY HOVERS
OVERHEAD THRU MONDAY. CONVERGENT QVECT IN UPPER LYRS IMPLYING MODEST
LIFT VIA DPVA IS MAINTAINED DESPITE INFLUX OF GENEROUS CAA. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS DEFINITELY IN QUESTION...BUT THINK IT IS REASONABLE
TO KEEP LOW POPS SAT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLOSED LOW OVERHEAD.
GIVEN TIMING OF FROPA...SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF LOW/MID 80S ON
SAT THEN CAA WILL DROPS HIGHS TO THE LOW/MID 70S SUN AND MON.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN CHALLENGES DURING THIS PERIOD....
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO IDAHO. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH
AND THEN OPEN UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SETUP A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO CANADA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.
MAIN JETSTREAM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH...SO THE MILD PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THOUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEE/MILLER/SMITH