FXUS63 KOAX 090819
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 AM CDT SAT OCT 9 2010
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WAS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER MT/WY THIS MORNING AS
A SLOW SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AN
ELONGATED VORT LOBE EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AND WAS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS RIBBON OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS NOTED
IN NAM/GFS PROGS...AND WILL USE NEGATIVE 850 LIFTED INDICES TO
TRACK POTENTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD PROVIDE NECESSARY INSTABILITY
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE CONTINUED SMALL
POPS THERE. HAVE TRIMMED POPS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LOW
INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT EAST...BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR WESTERN
CWA. THIS SHOULD OFFSET INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH TEMPS
TOWARD 80 ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOW TO MID 80S LIKELY IN THE EAST
WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE THICKER
CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS THERE IN THE 70S.
AS UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO TO WILL RAIN
CHANCES. AND WITH CORE OF LOW/COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINING TO OUR
WEST...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NECESSARY RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED FOR
MONDAY IN THE SOUTH AS BOTH GFS AND NAM SUGGEST NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN A LITTLE LONGER UNTIL LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY LATER
IN THE DAY.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL COME TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF A
POTENT COLD FRONT USHERED IN BY SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN STATES. FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS SO SMALL POPS WILL REMAIN. MAIN STORY WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 40S
AND HIGHS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 60S HELPED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW 40 IN MANY AREAS IF WINDS DIE
DOWN.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
AVIATION FORECASTS HAVE VFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT...GENERALLY HAVE WINDS
SWITCHING FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
NIETFELD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$