FXUS63 KOAX 092023
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 PM CDT SAT OCT 9 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN ISSUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOSED LOW...PRIMARILY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NEB. UPPER LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIP SWD INTO KS SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST PRETTY MUCH REELECTS CURRENT THINKING WITH POPS PRIMARILY OVER
THE WRN CWA TONIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE WESTERLIES REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ATTENDANT
SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD MAKES IT TO THE NRN CWA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LOOKS RATHER CHILLY...BUT FORTUNATELY
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING SWD PUSH OF SIGNIFICANT(SUBJECTIVE OF
COURSE)CAA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN CHALLENGES DURING THIS PERIOD...
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PCPN STILL POSSIBLE AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.
MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE INITIALLY OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
WEEK. BY 12Z FRIDAY THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH SHOULD BE OVER
OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH FAIRLY MILD HIGHS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE
70S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME 80S ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON
850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT FELT THAT
WAS A BIT BOLD FOR DAY 7...EVEN WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
COLDER AIR WILL BE LURKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. PATTERN COULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS
WILL CAUSE A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IT COULD POSSIBLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER
AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEE/MILLER/SMITH