FXUS63 KOAX 100812
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WAS DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING...BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS. SEVERAL VORT LOBES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WERE SPARKING CONVECTION IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT EASTWARD EXTENT HAS BEEN MINIMAL THIS
MORNING. FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING UNDER COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT NEARER CENTER
OF LOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...AND CURRENT PRECIPITATION PATTERN LENDS CREDENCE. AND WITH
LOW STAYING WELL WEST OF THE CWA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SMALL IN OUR AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT LOW POPS GOING IN OUR WEST
AND TRIMMED CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR LATER TODAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EAST AS STRAY SHORT WAVE EJECTS EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
SMALL.
AS UPPER LOW DROPS INTO KANSAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SO TO WILL RAIN
CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH UNTIL LOW MOVES
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS/COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HELPED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. COULD HIT 80 NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AGAIN TODAY
WITH 70S THE RULE WEST OF THE RIVER.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DOMINANT
DURING THE DAY...BUT REAL FRONT/COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TEENS TUESDAY...AND WITH GOOD MIXING GIVEN
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO EASILY SURPASS THE
MIDDLE 70S FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL SEE THE
COOLEST TEMPS AS COLD ADVECTION REACHES THERE BY AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GIVEN STRONG BAROCLINICITY
SURGING INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THOSE SMALL CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AND END POPS BY MIDNIGHT AS
MOISTURE/LIFT EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK DESPITE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 THEN. UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDED ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT A SHOWER WILL MOVE OVER
THE AIRPORT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC GIVEN THE LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MEANDERING NATURE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
NIETFELD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$