FXUS63 KOAX 102014
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VW IMAGERY AND NETWORK PROFILERS SHOWING CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION
SPINNING OVER NEB THIS AFTN AND IS TRACKING EVER SO SLOWLY TO
THE SE IN RESPONSE TO PAC NW WAVE KEEPING FLOW PROGRESSIVE.
MEANWHILE DISTINCT SFC BNDRY IDENTIFIED BASICALLY EXTENDING DOWN
THE NEB/IA BORDER THEN THRU ERN KS. GOING FCST PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE PCPN IN
RELATION TO POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. FOR TONIGHT...FORCING GETS
DISPLACED WITH SWD BOUND SYSTEM AND FOCUSES BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER
SRN CWA/ERN KS/WRN MO. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN 20 POPS THRU EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. DRY PD THEN LEADING UP TO
ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT FROPA SO WILL
LIMIT POPS TO SLGT CATEGORY. CAA NOT TOO SERIOUS AND THINK WED
AFTN MAV/MET NUMBERS IN THE MID 60S REASONABLE FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT AND COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND THEN SLIDE EAST FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE...TRENDED BELOW MOS GUIDANCE THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN THE 70S THURSDAY
THRU SAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FLATTENS WITH ANOTHER SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN STALLING OUT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH AND 70S SOUTH. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW POPS
IN THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 11/18Z. UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 19Z
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS BY
11/18Z. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AT KLNK AND AFTER 14Z IN
OMAHA AS 070-080OVC CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WRAP AROUND OF
UPPER LOW. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE REFLECTED THE TAFS AT KOMA AND KLNK
WITH A PROB30 GROUP DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF RAIN DEVELOPMENT AROUND
THE LOW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEE/CZ/SMITH