FXUS63 KOAX 110824
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
.DISCUSSION...
VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ALONG WESTERN KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER WAS SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING.
UPPER LOW WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WHILE LOBE WAS DRIFTING
WEST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT REGENERATION SHOULD
OCCUR NEAR LOW CENTER THROUGH TODAY UNDER STEEP LAPSE RATE REGIME.
MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS OVER KANSAS AND OUR SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. CURRENT THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE A
PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...BUT EXPECT OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN OVERCAST TO HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER DID
KEEP HIGHS BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...HELPED ALONG
BY SHORTWAVE KICKER SWEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WAVE
WILL DRIVE A POTENT COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA TUESDAY...BRINGING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE A BIT
WETTER WITH THE FRONT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL SHOW RATHER
LIGHT QPF. GIVEN ONLY PACIFIC MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AM NOT
EXPECTING A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR THE WHOLE CWA. FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING
OUR SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THEN.
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK TO INVADE OUR NORTHWEST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THERE. BUT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE CWA AS
DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE DRIVE TEMPS UPWARD.
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH 40
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SUNSHINE HELPING TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE LIMITED MIXING.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND AS SUNSHINE AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING RULE THE PLAINS.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MOIST FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW HAS BEEN RESULTING IN SHOWERS SPREADING
OVER THE OMA AND LNK TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION THE CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE TO
MEET VFR CRITERIA WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET.
AS THESE SHOWERS LINGER...ADDITIONAL MOISTENING OF AIRMASS MAY BRING
CIGS DOWN TO 5000 FEET BUT REMAINING VFR. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE REGION AFTER 18Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
NIETFELD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$