FXUS63 KOAX 170819
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX CONTS ACRS THE FA FOR TODAY. UPPR LVL FLOW WL GENERALLY
REMAIN ZONAL TODAY AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVG THRU CNTRL CANADA
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS FOR TONIGHT. BOUNDARY WHICH MOVD THRU THE
FA ON SAT WL BECOME STATIONARY OVR KS...AND THE LO LVL FLOW WL
TURN SERLY OVR THE FA. SHLD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH JUST SOME CI
AROUND THRU THE DAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING HIGHS WITH MID AND
UPPR 60S EXPECTED. NOCTURNAL LLJ WL INCREASE TONIGHT AND AREA FM
AROUND H85 TO H7 WL START TO MOISTEN NEAR THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
OVR NRN KS AND SRN NEB. ABOVE THE INCREASING MOISTURE...STEEP MID
LVL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER WL CONT. THUS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN THE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVR
SE NEB. NEVERTHELESS GIVEN THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND
LACK OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT...THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE PRETTY
SMALL TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO DEVELOP AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHRTWV TROF ENHANCES THE MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPR LVL JET OVR SRN IA EXTNDD WWD
INTO SE NEB LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MRNG. THIS ALNG WITH SOME
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FM THE WAVE MAY LEAD TO ISO/SCT SHOWERS BY
MON MRNG IN THIS AREA...AND WL CONT WITH SOME LO CHC POPS.
OTHERWISE DRY WX WL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE FA BY MON AFTN AND CONT
THRU A GOOD PART OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER WK SFC TROF MOVS THRU
THE FA ON TUES BUT LITTLE MOISTURE OR DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DID
INCREASE GOING HIGHS ON WED /ESPECIALLY OVR THE NW FA/ WHERE
BETTER MIXING WL LINE UP WITH WARMING H85 TMPS. NEXT SYSTEM OF
INTEREST STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AND GOING POPS/TEMPS SEEMED ON TRACK.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH CIGS
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 12KFT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM NRLY TO ERLY.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$