FXUS63 KOAX 162002
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH THE CHC
OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY.
THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH BRISK
NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 MPH. AT 2
PM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S NORTH AND THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...HOWEVER THE SFC FNT OVER KS
AND MO STALLS OUT. SUNDAY...THE SFC FNT LIFTS BACK NORTH...BUT
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...THUS HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S.
THERE IS SOME LIFT OVER THE FRONT AND THERE COULD BE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE BETTER CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT IS
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND AREA
CLOSER TO THE H85 FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS THRU...AGAIN WITH THE STRONGER
FORCING EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT RAIN FARTHER WEST. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME LOWER ISO TO
SCT POPS MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEATHER
FEATURE MOVES SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE WRN PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DRY FCST FOR THE AREA THROUGH FRI. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LTST GFS EJECTS THE LOW OUT MUCH FASTER AND
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ATTM....PREFER MORE OF THE ECMWWF SOLN
FOR THE LOW BEING SLOWER IN EJECTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND ALSO
BEING FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. WARM TEMPS ARE FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH ON WED THRU FRI. MAINLY 60S FCST FOR
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/SMITH/DEE